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WASHINGTON D.C. ?EUR??,,????'??+ Highly visible problems in the housing finance system are contributing to a wait-and-see attitude among prospective home buyers and reducing builder confidence in the single-family housing market, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI declined two points to 22 in August, its lowest level since January 1991.
?EUR??,,????'??There is no question that problems in the subprime mortgage sector have spilled over to other components of housing finance, including the Alt.-A and jumbo markets, delaying a revival of the single-family housing market,?EUR??,,????'?? added NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. ?EUR??,,????'??However, the government-related parts of the mortgage market still are functioning well and the underlying economic fundamentals promise to remain solid for some time ?EUR??,,????'??? providing support to the longer-run housing outlook. We now expect to see home sales return to an upward path by early next year and we expect housing starts to begin a gradual recovery process by mid-2008. From there, the market will have plenty of room to grow in 2009 and beyond.?EUR??,,????'??
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as either ?EUR??,,????'??good,?EUR??,,????'?? ?EUR??,,????'??fair?EUR??,,????'?? or ?EUR??,,????'??poor.?EUR??,,????'?? The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as either ?EUR??,,????'??high to very high,?EUR??,,????'?? ?EUR??,,????'??average?EUR??,,????'?? or ?EUR??,,????'??low to very low.?EUR??,,????'?? Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
All three component indexes declined in August. The index gauging current single-family home sales fell a single point, to 23, while the index gauging sales expectations for the next six months declined two points to 32 and the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers declined three points to 16.
Three out of four regions of the country posted declines in the August HMI. While the South?EUR??,,????'???s HMI reading remained unchanged at 25, the West recorded a one-point decline to 23, the Northeast posted a two-point decline to 30 and the Midwest posted a five-point decline to 14.
Francisco Uviña, University of New Mexico
Hardscape Oasis in Litchfield Park
Ash Nochian, Ph.D. Landscape Architect
November 12th, 2025
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