Winter Weather Likely "Near Normal"

 

This year's winter precipitation is likely to be much nearer to normal for most of the country. Graphic courtesy of NOAA.

On Oct. 12 the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration released the annual U.S. Winter Outlook for the months of December, January and February.

The forecast is uncertain as to how this winter will affect the continuing drought in the northwest. The report suggests that more moderate conditions will prevail in Southern California, where precipitation reached record levels last year.

NOAA forecasters expect warmer-than-normal temperatures in most of the U.S. The precipitation outlook is less certain, showing equal chances of above, near or below normal precipitation for much of the country.

"Even though the average temperature over the three-month winter season is forecast to be above normal in much of the country, there still will be bouts of winter weather with cold temperatures and frozen precipitation," said retired Navy Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr. , Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

NOAA does not expect La Ni??a and El Ni??o/Southern Oscillation ( ENSO ) to play a role in this winter's forecast. Without ENSO, forecasters look to other short-term climate factors, like the North Atlantic Oscillation, in determining the overall winter patterns. Under these conditions there tends to be more variability in winter weather patterns across the nation, especially in the Great Lakes region and the northeast U.S.

This year's U.S. Winter Outlook calls for warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the central and western United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. The Midwest, the Southern Californian coast and the East Coast have equal chances of warmer, cooler or near-normal temperatures this winter.

The precipitation outlook calls for wetter-than-normal conditions across most of Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and northeastern Texas. Drier-than-normal conditions are expected across the Southwest from Arizona to New Mexico.

As winter approaches, nearly 20 percent of the nation is in some level of drought compared to around 30 percent of the country this time last year as defined by the U.S. Drought Monitor. For the sixth year in a row, drought remains a concern for parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. Wet or dry conditions during the winter typically have a significant impact on drought conditions. Winter-spring snow pack is particularly important in the West, as much of the annual water supply comes from the springtime snow melt. NOAA cautions it would take a number of significant winter snowstorms to end the drought in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.

Read the complete report at www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2520.htm