The LCSI crossed the line today as the stock market appears to be seeking new lows . . . Up more than 15% one month ago, the LCSI, at this minute (07/17/02 9:50 a.m. pdt), is down 0.28%. I still say the construction industry is holding its own, but it is hard to avoid the reality of what the stock market can do to the economy. Back in the 1990-92 era it was the construction industry that played a major role in the economic downturn . . . Now it's Tech and Travel and, even worse . . . corporate shenanigans . . . What to Expect . . . If the stock downturn holds the DJIA at the 8,000 level (or lower . . .) the landscape industry will continue its current workloads through the summer, but without a turnaround many who would be ordering construction projects will not. Just today, the government released information stating that housing starts declined 3.6% in the month of June . . . This however, is a somewhat misleading statistic . . . The Factors . . . The lasting strength of the construction industry is based on population growth and that should continue to drive demand for new housing and facilities. According to a news report by Mark Felsenthal (Rueters), "economists, including the Federal Reserve and Alan Greenspan, (say that) housing remains at strong levels." Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors, was quoted in Felsenthal's report to say that, "Over the past twenty years, the level of single family activity posted in June was exceeded only three times. And two of those occasions occurred this year . . . " Housing is holding its own . . . Consumer confidence, while statistically declining, is still holding on to the belief that these economic troubles are caused by correctable elements (i.e. stronger corporate accountability, restraining terrorism, more governmental fiscal responsibility . . . .) so there is no feeling of panic. This means that many projects will be reviewed for efficiencies and cut backs will occur, but building will continue . . . If the stock market stays dry, so will pocketbooks. Durable goods and non-asset-building home improvements will suffer a decline in demand. Manufacturing slows, employment drops and disposable income declines leaving both holes and opportunities. Lack of spending money means more competition, while increased unemployment bolsters the opportunity to pick up quality help . . . In slow economic times, landscape is an asset builder for residential properties, a rent enhancer for consumer based commercial properties, a neutral element for manufacturing and a political issue at governmental levels . . . Choose your specialties wisely . . . This is a different downturn than in the 90's . . . While the construction industry and thus the landscape industry will not suffer as it did then, now is the time to focus on the business of running your business. Landscape Architects, designers and even commercial facilities need to look inward, make efficiencies and promote their strengths . . . Whew . . . in the time it took to write this column the good 'ole LCSI is back over the '+' mark and now (07/17/02 11:12 a.m. pdt) sits at a gain of 0.60% . . . Hey, the construction industry is holding its own . . . God Bless . . . .