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Texas is projected to be the nation's economic growth leader over the next decade, according to the Lexington, Mass.-based research and forecasting firm IHS Global Insight.
Payroll employment in Texas is expected to increase 1.8 percent in 2011, putting the Lone Star State in a ?EUR??,,????'?????<?tie?EUR??,,????'?????<? nationally with Nebraska in this category, according to the firm's projections.
Texas is also projected to see 2.2 percent annual job growth rate between 2010 and 2016, which puts it tied for first with Idaho in that category, according to the firm.
"This is the decade in relative economic terms where Texas really dominates the U.S. economy," said Jim Diffley at an economic outlook conference Nov. 10 in Austin. Diffley tracks U.S. regional economies for IHS Global Insight.
Diffley said the reasons Texas is likely to outperform the national economy in the coming years is because of its relatively mild housing bust, diversified economy and competitive business costs. Still, it will take years for job growth to dent Texas?EUR??,,????'?????<???EUR? jobless rate, which will probably remain above six percent in 2016, said Diffley. The state's unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent in September (same as the rate one year ago), down from 8.3 percent in August.
Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, really put a damper on the conference with a curious proclamation you wouldn?EUR??,,????'?????<???EUR?t expect to hear from an economist: ?EUR??,,????'?????<?The next decade will be less fun than the 1990s and the 2000s."
Gary Preuss, an economist at the Texas comptroller's office who attended the conference, said the comptroller?EUR??,,????'?????<???EUR?s economic forecast for Texas is a ?EUR??,,????'?????<?bit more conservative.?EUR??,,????'?????<? Preuss notes budget woes and expects the recovery to take longer than ?EUR??,,????'?????<?traditional?EUR??,,????'?????<? recession recoveries. Preuss agreed with Diffley that the Texas unemployment rate will remain elevated for some time.
"It will come down, but it will come down slowly," Preuss said, the reason being the labor force is growing almost as quickly as the number of jobs.
Francisco Uviña, University of New Mexico
Hardscape Oasis in Litchfield Park
Ash Nochian, Ph.D. Landscape Architect
November 12th, 2025
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