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LCN Publisher's Page April, 200404-01-04 | 11
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Keep an Eye on Residential Markets?EUR??,,????'???

By George Schmok

Well, the big news today (4/2/04) is more than 300,000 new jobs were created in March, while the previously reported January and February numbers were revised up. This is good news for the landscape industry, and especially for landscape contractors who rely on homeowners for their projects.

Additionally, new single-family homes sales jumped 5.8% in February (the Fed is always a month or so behind real time on these numbers) and, according to the National Association of Realtors, existing homes sales rose 5.7% over last February (and 2% up from January 2004).

While sales are up, new home construction dropped by 1.5% in seasonally adjusted terms. Since these are seasonally adjusted rates, these numbers already take into consideration that it is winter and that cold and snow usually slow things down a bit. Additionally, of the 102,000 new single-family homes sold in February, about 40% are yet to be ?EUR??,,????'??started?EUR??,,????'?? (constructed). Even so, there are 373,000 new homes out there yet to be sold.

OK, what the heck does that mean to you? For one thing, it means that if all construction stopped today there wouldn?EUR??,,????'???t be a new home available after June. So, although there has been a slight slowdown in new construction, demand is still strong and the need to pick up the rate of construction is on the rise.

While it would be wise to keep an eye on Mr. Greenspan who, to keep inflation in check, could raise interest rates and thus make it more difficult to purchase a home, the impact from more jobs will probably mean more demand in the housing market.

More good signs about job growth came from House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, San Francisco, in an interview with Neil Cavuto on Fox News. She indicated job growth usually lags about three years behind the economy. I interpret this to mean job growth is just now beginning to catch up with the recovering economy?EUR??,,????'???Again, more jobs equals more demand?EUR??,,????'???

On the commercial side, since the job market has been weak over the past few years, I wouldn?EUR??,,????'???t look for a tremendous increase in commercial and industrial development. Instead we?EUR??,,????'???ll need to see vacancy rates decrease before we?EUR??,,????'???ll see a rise in demand or available projects. You, the landscape contractor, need to keep an eye on the residential markets at least for the rest of 2004?EUR??,,????'???certainly through the summer.

As demand increases, so will your need to recruit and hire qualified workers. Take a look at the news item about the H-2B guest worker program on page 8. There is a huge difference between the existing H-2B program that allows 66,000 foreign workers to gain legal status and the Bush proposal that allows eight million workers to gain legal status for work in America.

As the political year unfolds, this will probably become a huge issue, especially for you. Meanwhile, there are a growing number of firms that are helping landscape contractors find and hire documented workers. With workers?EUR??,,????'??? compensation still in flux and undocumented workers on every corner, the temptation is to skirt the law and do what?EUR??,,????'???s necessary to get the job done?EUR??,,????'???This short term and short-sighted approach will only hurt the prestige of the business. With demand and the economy on the rise, you would do well to strengthen your company workforce and methods of operation. Proper techniques today will mean a stronger business tomorrow?EUR??,,????'???

God Bless


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