House Prices Falling

On a not seasonally adjusted basis, the largest declines were observed in Minneapolis (-3.7 percent), Charlotte (-2.4 percent), Chicago (-2.4 percent), Detroit (-2 percent) and Atlanta (-1.9 percent). Washington DC (+1.1 percent NSA) and Seattle (+0.1 percent) were the only cities to experience an increase. Courtesy of Case-Shiller

Prices declined in 18 of the 20 cities covered by Case-Shiller index on a not seasonally adjusted basis (but were up in seven cities on a seasonally adjusted basis).

With the recent declines, 12 of the 20 cities in the CS20 index-Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland Ore., Seattle and Tampa-have fallen to their lowest level of the current housing cycle. However, the pattern is not uniform across the metropolitan areas. Boston (1 percent), Dallas (0.6 percent), Denver (0.3 percent) remain above their 2009 low.

Washington DC (10.3 percent above its 2009 low), San Francisco (10.3 percent), San Diego (6.5 percent) and Los Angeles (5.4 percent) have experienced solid house price appreciation. Courtesy of Case-Shiller

Other key housing market indicators have also trended down in recent months, with housing starts falling 11 percent and existing home sales down 1 percent in April. New home sales moved against the trend in April, with a moderate 7 percent increase, but remain close to historic lows. This suggests that house prices are likely to remain weak in the in the second quarter of 2011.

Since reaching the trough in early 2009, despite the rise and fall associated with the various phases of the home buyer tax credit, the broad trend in the Case-Shiller composite indexes has been flat.

Further fluctuation in the house prices measures are anticipated in the coming months. However, you can expect house prices to remain relatively flat through 2011, then to show modest growth in 2012.

- Courtesy of NAHB