Single-family housing starts have generally been rising since early this year. They hit a low of 357,000 in January and February of this year (seasonally adjusted, at an annual rate), their lowest level since current records of housing starts began in 1959. There was one stumble when starts fell in August from July, yet they still averaged almost 500,000 at an annual rate in the third quarter. But in October, single-family housing starts fell to 476,000 from September’s 511,000.

The drop-off appeared to be due to the looming expiration of the first-time home buyer tax credit, which was subsequently extended and expanded. It simply was impossible for a builder to start a home in October and deliver it by the end of November in time to qualify for the tax credit. Look for residual effects to take place in the early Spring 201, when more houses are completed and need some landscape improvements.

New home sales fell in September to 405,000 from 415,000 in August. A new home sale is recorded when a contract is signed and a deposit made. September would already have been too late to start a home and have it ready by the Nov. 30 deadline for closing on a home to qualify for the credit. However, a buyer could have purchased a completed or nearly completed house from a builder that month and still have had sufficient time to settle by that deadline.