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El Ni????(R)????o Conditions Now Most Intense Since 1997-9809-09-15 | News

El Niño Conditions Now Most Intense Since 1997-98
Still a Bit Below the Peak of that Season

Most of the eight international climate models surveyed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology indicate that there will be further warming of the central Pacific Ocean, and about half the models indicate the event may begin to plateau during the Northern Hemisphere's fall to early winter.

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the 2015 El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean is now the strongest since 1997–98. They report that sea surface temperatures are well above El Niño thresholds, and that there are consistently weak trade winds and a strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index, all indications of a major event taking place.

Weekly tropical Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies (i.e. difference from normal) in the central Pacific are now at their highest values since 1997–98, though they still remain more than half a degree below the peak observed during that event.

Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate the tropical Pacific will continue to warm, with the largest anomalies occurring later in the year. Typically, El Niño peaks during the late fall and early winter in the U.S., and weakens during late winter to spring. The 2015 event has, so far, been following a normal El Niño life cycle.

While El Niño is usually associated with below-average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia, it typically brings above average precipitation to parts of the U.S., where some forecasts are calling for the strongest event in the record book, which goes back to 1950. It has already brought torrential rains to parts of South America and dryness to Southeast Asia.