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Economic News - January 2014 LC/DBM01-08-14 | News
Economic News
This Month in Numbers:





58 - Builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes improved four points to a 58 reading in December on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), matching the high for the year and the highest score since November 2005. "The HMI is up 11 points since December of 2012 and has been above 50 for the past seven months," said NAHB chairman Rick Judson. "This is definitely an encouraging sign as we move into 2014."





8.6% - Construction jobs totaled 5,851,000 nationally in November, an increase of 178,000 from a year earlier. Employers added 17,000 jobs in November, bringing industry employment to the highest level since August 2009 and the unemployment rate down to 8.6 percent. Though the labor force has grown by 3.1 percent during the past year, industry jobs remain nearly 1.9 million off the sector's April 2006 peak. The new employment figures come as construction spending levels hit a four-year high in October.
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86 - The NAHB Leading Markets Index was static in November and December, posting scores of .85 and .86 respectively. While the December figure indicates that the nationwide housing market is running at 86 percent of normal activity levels, only 54 out of about 350 markets surveyed have resumed or surpassed the "normal" benchmark. "Smaller markets are leading the way, particularly where energy is the primary economic driver," NAHB chief economist David Crowe said. "Nearly half of the markets in the top 54 are in the energy states of Texas, Louisiana, North Dakota, Wyoming and Montana."





October New Home Sales Spike Provides Dubious Boost


Sales of new single-family homes surged 25.4 percent to a 444,000 annualized pace in October, following a 354,000 rate in September that was the weakest since April 2012, according to a December 4 report from the Commerce Department.

The sales jump was the largest one-month increase in more than three decades, and industry analysts are already tamping down expectations that such an excessive expansion will be borne out by future reports. Data for September and October were released together due to the October government shutdown, bringing a 15 percent downward revision to the August figures that was compounded by a decline from August to September. The October data, according to the Commerce Department, is subject to a margin of error of more than 19 percent.




New Residential Construction, November


Both housing starts and building permits approached five-year highs in November, indicating resilience in the growth of the housing market that recent mortgage rate increases were unable to crack. Though both categories broke the million-unit milestone for the month, expectations of a winter slowdown could roll back these gains at the outset of 2014.

1.091 - annual rate (millions), new housing starts, seasonally adjusted (SA)

+29.6% - housing starts rate change since November 2012 (SA)

2.27 - housing starts annual rate peak (millions), January 2006

1.007 - annual rate (millions), new building permits (SA)

+7.9% - building permits rate change since August 2012 (SA)

2.26 - building permits annual rate peak (millions), September 2005








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