AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker

AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker reports nonresidential building has seen steady growth, and is getting closer to reaching its prerecession peak. He expects near double-digit increases in construction spending in the office and retail sectors to lead the commercial real estate market in 2016. He also predicts significant growth in the single-family sector due to pent-up demand after years of slower activity.

Baker says the multifamily and home-improvement segments have almost fully recovered from the recession, and are now entering an ''expansionary stage.''

Baker is concerned about the construction labor supply. He says construction has typically relied on immigrants and students from vocational and technical training programs, but the decline in immigrant workers and a lack of young people choosing technical training is hurting the sector. Baker encouraged the industry to ''focus on the key demographics that have traditionally not served this market,'' especially women in the workforce.

Associated Builders and Contractors Chief Economist Anirban Basu

Anirban Basu, chief economist for the Associated Builders and Contractors, predicts 7.4% growth in nonresidential construction spending in 2016. He iterates Baker's concern that construction companies will have difficulty meeting the construction demand because of lack of skilled workers.

Basu believes the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will have a major impact on the construction industry and the economy as a whole. Takeaway the ultra-low interest rates and the U.S. economy has a problem, he says.

Basu anticipates a ''solid year for nonresidential construction spending.'' One of the leading indicators is the Architectural Billings Index, he says. ''Architects are getting busier, which means contractors generally get busier downstream.''

NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe

NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe is optimistic about the residential construction industry in 2016, largely because of the improving job market. He points to the strong correlation between single-family permits and employment gains, but notes: ''We aren't quite up to where we need to be. We still have a little further to go to have full employment.''

On the supply side of the industry, the major obstacles he sees are qualified labor and availability of buildable lots. He believes the labor shortage is largely because construction wages are less competitive than before the recession. ''In 1990, the typical residential worker made 14% more than the general wage rate. What's disturbing now is that ratio is down to 4% more.''

Crowe expects the U.S. economy to keep growing next year. He sees greater gains for the residential industry. Single-family construction, according to Crowe, is currently 53% back to what is considered ''normal'' levels, and should be 91% of the way there by the end of 2017. He anticipates mortgage rates staying at record lows, even if short-term interest rates rise slightly.

U.S. Economic Growth Forecast
Goldman Sachs has cut its forecast for 2016 U.S. economic growth to 2.4 percent, down from a previous estimate of 2.8 percent. With the 271,000 jobs created in October and the 5% unemployment rate, the lowest since February 2008, it finally appears the Federal Reserve may begin raising interest rates by the end of the year, something it has not done for nearly a decade. The Fed raised that possibility at its last meeting. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said a Fed rate hike will depend on how the economy is performing when officials meet on Dec. 15-16. Any reports of the Fed's intention regarding interest rates has caused wild fluctuations in the stock markets.

Fischer said the central bank's ultra-low interest rate policies have been a ''key factor in shielding the economy,'' although he noted some sectors heavily exposed to international trade have been affected.