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Warming Prompts Plant Zone Changes03-27-07 | News

Warming Prompts Plant Zone Changes




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A native black oak shows autumn color near the 5,000 ft. level at Mt. Baldy, Calif. Higher-elevation plant choices are expanding as autumn cooling arrives later and spring warming arrives sooner.
Photo by Erik Skindrud


The standard plant zone reference is the United States Department of Agriculture?EUR??,,????'?????<

The most recent revision of the map, published in 1990, is considered the standard measure of plant hardiness throughout the United States. You can view the map at www.usna.usda.gov/Hardzone/index.html

This week, an article published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences predicts that by 2100, 12 to 39 per cent of the land surface of the Earth will have a new climate. Previous studies suggest that animals are shifting towards the poles at six kilometers a decade.






The National Arbor Day Foundation released the map on the right in 2006. Note the shrinking of cold zone 2 and the growth of warm zone 10 on the updated map.
Photo courtesy of the National Arbor Day Foundation

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Old Maps Outdated

New reports about climate change, fueled by unseasonably warm early winter temperatures in many areas, have generated questions and skepticism about the USDA map. The 1990 version, based on weather data from 1974-1986, has been widely criticized as outdated given the trend toward warmer average winter temperatures over the last decade. In 2003, a technical review committee was formed by the USDA to update the map. It is hoped that a new map will be available by the end of this year.

In the interim, the National Arbor Day Foundation (NADF) has published its own hardiness zone map based on data collected by the National Climatic Data Center from 1990-2004. Compared to the USDA map, it shows a definite warming trend since the time of the earlier map?EUR??,,????'?????<

According to the Arbor Day map, higher-elevation mountain gardens lie in well within the boundaries of Zone 4-5, with Zone 3 occupying only Colorado?EUR??,,????'?????<www.arborday.org to see a color animation showing the northward shift of hardiness zones and a side-by-side comparison with the USDA map.

The Arbor Day map seems to be consistent with the consensus of climatologists that global warming is underway. The National Climatic Data Center recently declared 2006 to be the warmest year on record in the contiguous United States, with 2007 expected to be even warmer.

Some weather and garden experts disagree. The committee working on the new USDA map believes the difference in the two maps is due to the fact that the1990 map used data taken during a ?EUR??,,????'?????<

Revised Climate Maps

Aside from this controversy, both the USDA and the Arbor Day maps have limitations. Both use the average minimum temperature as the only environmental criterion on which plant hardiness is based. As a result, according to both maps, places such as Austin Texas and Portland Oregon are in the same zone, yet their climates and resulting growing conditions are dramatically different. And, even if you are new to gardening, you probably realize that other conditions will play a role in the survival of a particular plant species.

The American Horticultural Society (AHS) has developed a Heat Zone Map. Rather than winter hardiness, this map refers to summer hardiness-the plant?EUR??,,????'?????<www.ahs.org to view this map, you can also key in your zip code to find out what Heat Zone you are in.

Each of the zone maps referenced in this article can assist us in determining the suitability of a plant for our garden. They are good starting points if only in that they help us to eliminate plants that have no chance of surviving.

Sources: Nan Spence, denver.yourhub.com, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

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