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PCA: Housing Starts to Continue Decline07-14-08 | News

PCA: Housing Starts to Continue Decline




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The Portland Cement Association is projecting 36 percent fewer housing starts in 2008 and another drop in starts in 2009. The good news is that the group predicts a recovery in 2010, although some states will still see an increase in foreclosures as the anticipated recovery begins.


Weak economic conditions, tight credit conditions, tepid sales, and high inventories has led the Portland Cement Association to project a 36 percent decline in housing starts for 2008 followed by an additional one percent decline in 2009.

According to the PCA, the residential sector will act as a significant drag on cement consumption during 2008. Cement consumption declined by 11.5 million metric tons in 2007. Three quarters of that decline was attributed to the decline in single-family housing starts. In 2008, PCA expects cement consumption to decline by 12.1 million metric tons, half of which is attributed to continued weakness in single-family construction.

?EUR??,,????'??Despite large home price declines and improved affordability, sales remain sluggish and offer little hope that the inventory glut will be worked off anytime soon,?EUR??,,????'?? PCA Chief Economist Ed Sullivan said. ?EUR??,,????'??The economic environment remains weak ?EUR??,,????'??? reinforcing the concept of a drawn out recovery in housing starts.?EUR??,,????'??

Foreclosures added to the number of available houses during 2008 and early 2009 will cause inventory levels to remain in excess of 10 month?EUR??,,????'???s supply during the remainder of the year, the PCA predicts, and not reach desired levels until the second half of 2010.

The predicted 2010 recovery will be blunted in some states, particularly California, Arizona, Nevada and Florida that fully participated in the housing bloom. The PCA believes these states will have a disproportionally high number of defaults and foreclosures and even more delayed housing start recoveries.

Source: Portland Cement Association

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