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NAHB: Builder Confidence Declines In November11-16-05 | News
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NAHB: Builder Confidence Declines In November

WASHINGTON D.C. ?EUR??,,????'??+ Builder confidence dropped in November according to a report released Wednesday by the National Association of Home Builders. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for November declined eight points to rest at 60, a level well above the midpoint that indicates the majority of builders still see conditions as positive in their markets.

?EUR??,,????'??It?EUR??,,????'???s important to keep today?EUR??,,????'???s report in perspective,?EUR??,,????'?? said NAHB President Dave Wilson. ?EUR??,,????'??Many builders still have substantial backlogs of unfilled orders and will remain quite busy in coming months. But we?EUR??,,????'???re well aware that some slowing of demand is inevitable following the record-breaking sales activity that has prevailed for some time.?EUR??,,????'??

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for approximately 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as either ?EUR??,,????'??good,?EUR??,,????'?? ?EUR??,,????'??fair?EUR??,,????'?? or ?EUR??,,????'??poor.?EUR??,,????'?? The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as either ?EUR??,,????'??high to very high,?EUR??,,????'?? ?EUR??,,????'??average?EUR??,,????'?? or ?EUR??,,????'??low to very low.?EUR??,,????'?? Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

Each of the HMI?EUR??,,????'???s component indexes registered declines this time around. The index gauging current sales activity fell eight points to 66, while the index gauging sales expectations for the next six months dropped nine points to 64 and the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers fell five points to 46.

?EUR??,,????'??No huge drop is in the cards ?EUR??,,????'??? the sharp decline in the HMI probably overstates the actual degree of deterioration in the single-family market, and it?EUR??,,????'???s most likely that we?EUR??,,????'???re engaged in an orderly cooling process that will lead to somewhat lower home sales and production in the future,?EUR??,,????'?? NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders said. ?EUR??,,????'??We?EUR??,,????'???re looking for a 5 or 6 percent decline in home sales next year, compared to 2005.?EUR??,,????'??

Though builder confidence was down across all regions of the country, ongoing trends prevailed to keep those in the West at the highest end of the confidence scale and those in the Midwest at the lower end. In the West, the HMI fell from a very high level of 91 in October to a still-impressive 78 in November, while in the South, it declined from 76 to 68. In the Northeast, the gauge slipped six points to 61, while continued job-market weakness in the Midwest brought that region?EUR??,,????'???s HMI down from 45 to 38.

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