When We Are 7 Billion

By George Schmok

Sustainability is the buzzword setting the bar for development these days. Is it sustainable?

According to National Geographic?EUR??,,????'???s January issue, the Earth?EUR??,,????'???s population will reach 7 billion sometime in 2011 (and 9 billion by 2045). Still, standing side by side every one of us could fit within the city limits of Los Angeles. Of course, if everyone were to move to L.A. tomorrow, it would only take a couple of days before the water ran out . . . Unsustainable.

I was having a conversation with a landcape architect in Oregon a few weeks ago and we were debating whether it was better to preserve the countryside or limit density in downtown areas. He was arguing it was more important to preserve the rural farmlands and keep populations confined to cities. I was saying that ultimately cities are unsustainable.

He cited Portland as a beautiful city and a model for modern development. I cited that once you moved to the east side of the Willamette River, the city became rather ugly.

The conversation ended when I asked how he felt about having 3 million people living in downtown Portland (current population is only 582,130).

A few years ago urban sprawl was presented as the enemy of the people. Pictures of track houses dominating the landscape were served up as the antithesis of proper planning. Somehow this progressed into building up rather than building out. Centralize the people and then put in a few parks to let them remember what it feels like to touch grass, smell flowers and walk in a traffic-free landscape.

Having grown up in Southern California and the Pacific Northwest, my experience with downtown was trying to stay away from L.A. and enjoying the rural feel of the suburbs of Orange County, Calif., Seattle, Tacoma and Vancouver, B.C.

To me it was all about canopy. In L.A., the concrete jungle, you could (and still can) drive for hours, get nowhere and see nothing but smog stained buildings. In O.C., just south of L.A., there are a few scattered downtown areas, surrounded by residential communities lined with trees. What a great place to live.

In Seattle, you have the same elements, only with a lot more fresh water. You?EUR??,,????'???ll be driving along, turn around the corner and there is the Space Needle and a few dozen high-rise buildings, virtually all dominated by business occupants. Into the city to work; out of the city to live. The drive from Tacoma to Seattle is lined with residential communities. However, because of the canopy, almost all you can see are the trees.

While the Pacific Northwest is probably not going to run out of water anytime soon, the Southwest is arid. And while the climate is what brings people flooding to the area, uncontrolled growth is absolutely unsustainable. At some point in the not so distant future, the L.A. basin will reach the point of saturation.

The problem is there are other cities in the area as well. San Diego, Las Vegas and Phoenix are all growing metropolitan areas competing for the same resources. And the resources are running out. The only real source of water in the entire region is the Colorado River and it runs dry before reaching the sea.

While it may be all right to allow unlimited growth in New York City, that kind of growth in the Southwest is unsustainable. At some point, rather than encouraging density, there needs to be limits on density. If you live in the Pacific Northwest you might enjoy the idea of a 10-fold population increase in your downtown areas, but I know a lot of people in that region and I don?EUR??,,????'???t know a single one that loves the idea of a population surge. In fact, there used to be a sign on the road entering Oregon that said something to the effect of, ?EUR??,,????'??Welcome to Oregon . . . Enjoy your visit, but please don?EUR??,,????'???t stay.?EUR??,,????'??

China is the model for densification. (Vancouver, B.C. is becoming the Pacific Northwest version of the Chinese model.) However, China, long ago realized unlimited density is unsustainable, so much so they adopted a one child per family quota.

Cities are great until there is crisis, but in crisis they are unsustainable. Throughout millennia, China has been self-sufficient. They are the largest producers of grains and agriculture in the world, yet they export virtually none of these products. Now they are facing one of the worst droughts in their agricultural history and their grain crops are feared to end up at the lowest levels in history. Tens of millions of people are suddenly going to be out of food.

With the population of the earth growing by the billions we are at the point where the truly sustainable development is the one that limits density, encourages canopy and develops methods to feed, water and power the local population with local resources. Anything else will ultimately be . . . Unsustainable . . .

God Bless . . .

George Schmok, Publisher