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The Argyros School's Hoag Center for Real Estate and the Building Industry Association of Orange County recently held the inaugural gathering of their Home Builder Roundtable Series. The topic of discussion was, "The Dynamics of Lot Inventory and New Home Demand in Orange County." The roundtable encompassed a statistical review of the last 11 months of the housing industry, an overview of the impact that the recovery of the housing market has had on the local home building industry, and a forecast of new home demand. The panel experts were Bob Yoder, a division president of Shea Homes, and Ted McKibbin, a president at Standard Pacific Homes. Jeffery Meyers of Meyers Research, a consulting firm for the home-building industry, moderated the discussion. Meyers opening remarks noted the improved Orange County economy with a 5.9 percent unemployment rate, down from almost 10 percent at the height of the recession. Both panel members voiced positive recent results. "We're seeing great performance of the new communities we've opened," said McKibbin. "We had a good year," added Yoder. "We opened eight communities, six in Orange County and thankfully they are all doing well." The statistics showed that new home volume is up and single-family detached home volume is up and that the median home price in the county is approaching $900,000. McKibbin stated that Standard Pacific is on track to "close about 240 homes this year." The pipeline is looking healthier too with about 8,000 units set to break ground. "When you look at Orange County, we're about halfway back in permits," said Meyers. Yoder cautioned not to be overly optimistic, stating, "The jury is still out if the market is healthy enough to handle all these new communities." But both panel members predicted strong sales rates in 2014 and 2015. McKibbin said that his company is targeting an absorption of three per month. But he foresees labor costs rising as well as commodities. As to what new features are home buyers looking for, Yoder included an emphasis on outdoor living amenities like outside bars and "TVs everywhere."
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