Home Buying Intent on the Upswing

 

Courtesy of NAHB

Relative to the old series, there was a marked change in home buying intent under the new survey design. For planned purchases, which includes home buying intent, the Conference Board advises that due to sample design differences, the level shifts should be treated as breaks, and there will be no historical revisions.

The number of respondents indicating that they were planning to buy a home in the next six months shifted from 2.2 percent in October under the old series, to 3.7 percent in November under the new series.

The new series has been volatile, with the share of respondents indicating that they were planning to buy a home leaping from 3.2 percent in December to 5.2 percent in January, then easing back to 4.4 percent in February. Despite the volatility, consumer confidence in the housing market, as indicated by home buying intent, has shown improvement in recent months.

A level of caution should be applied in reading recent data, as the Conference Board has transitioned to a new data provider and a new sample design and weighting. The new weighting technique was introduced to ensure that the sample-based estimates of household population categories better match the independent census population controls.

- Courtesy of NAHB