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Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes edged down in June, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The index slipped to 18 this month, returning to the record low that was posted in December of 2007.
?EUR??,,????'??Clearly, conditions in the housing market remain very weak, and our builder members are not seeing any signs of improvement,?EUR??,,????'?? noted NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders.
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as ?EUR??,,????'??good,?EUR??,,????'?? ?EUR??,,????'??fair?EUR??,,????'?? or ?EUR??,,????'??poor.?EUR??,,????'?? The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as either ?EUR??,,????'??high to very high,?EUR??,,????'?? ?EUR??,,????'??average?EUR??,,????'?? or ?EUR??,,????'??low to very low.?EUR??,,????'?? Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
The HMI?EUR??,,????'???s component indexes gauging current sales conditions and sales expectations for the next six months each remained unchanged in June, at 17 and 28, respectively. Meanwhile, the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers fell a single point to 17.
Regionally, HMI results were mixed this month, with this aspect of the index displaying characteristic month-to-month volatility. The Northeast posted a six-point decline to 12 ?EUR??,,????'??? its lowest-ever reading since NAHB began breaking the numbers down by region in December of 2004. Meanwhile, the Midwest posted a five-point gain to 17, the South was unchanged at 22 and the West posted a four-point decline to 16. All regions are down dramatically from their respective peaks in 2005.
Source: NAHB
Francisco Uviña, University of New Mexico
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