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Is El Nino behind the storms that have battered California and other parts of the west this year? The answer is yes. And the answer is no.
Yes, it turns out, mild El Nino conditions do exist in the Pacific Ocean but not off the coast of South America, where warmer-than-normal waters tend to influence North American weather. The recent deluge in California and neighboring states is due to other factors, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, or CPC, said in January.
They include a persistent trough off the West Coast and a weaker-than-average jet stream across the central and eastern Pacific.
?EUR??,,????'?????<?These circulation features are not consistent with El Nino, which would favor a stronger-than-average jetstream over the central and eastern Pacific,?EUR??,,????'?????<? the CPC said.
Residents can't blame El Nino for the rain, but there are a few effects that may be linked to the weather condition.
?EUR??,,????'?????<?Expected U.S. impacts during the Northern Hemisphere winter include warmer-than-average conditions in the West and in the northern Plains and cooler and wetter-than-average conditions for portions of the South and Southeast.?EUR??,,????'?????<? The complete CPC statement can be read at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Click on ?EUR??,,????'?????<?ENSO Diagnostic Discussion?EUR??,,????'?????<? to read the report.
While many regions have received record or near-record precipitation amounts this winter, experts caution against the assumption that the close to 10-year drought is over. It would take three or four (or more) wet years to end the drought, they agree.
At Payson, Ariz. (home to one of the country's strictest water-use ordinances) officials have no plans to relax rules anytime soon. That decision is only made once a year-in April.
The town is taking a wait-and-see approach.
?EUR??,,????'?????<?Typically you have a pretty wet period within the middle of a long-term dry cycle,?EUR??,,????'?????<? local hydrologist Mike Plough told the Payson Roundup newspaper. ?EUR??,,????'?????<?So this could just be another one of those bumps within a dry cycle.?EUR??,,????'?????<?
Francisco Uviña, University of New Mexico
Hardscape Oasis in Litchfield Park
Ash Nochian, Ph.D. Landscape Architect
November 12th, 2025
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