1993 looks to be a solid year for the profession with housing starts up and building construction forecasted to rise in the 7 to 10% range. The National Association of Home Builders announced its prediction of 1.3 million housing starts in 1993. This is up from the 1992 projected total of 1.2 million and signifies an 8% growth rate for next year.

Existing home sales continue to be strong, out pacing new home sales by a 3 to 1 margin. An estimated 3.6 million existing homes changed hands in '92 and according to the Wall Street Journal the number is predicted to remain consistent and grow another 4% in '93.

The Midwest led the growth with a +14.6% increase and the West followed with 10.4% growth in the third quarter. The Northeast only grew 1.9% in the 3rd quarter but has shown a year long increase of more than 17%. The West however is bringing down the national average by only showing a year long increase of 5.7%.

Housing starts show a similar geographic trend with the Midwest, from Ohio to Arizona and Montana to Georgia leading the building permit race with gains as high as 50%. The four corners of the country however are still not keeping pace.

California is hovering around the 0% mark for growth in residential housing starts and Florida, New York and WashingtonState all showing moderately little growth. These have been the stronger markets and a lack of growth doesn't mean there is no building, but the trend is a lowering of property and housing values in the traditionally boom markets with stabilizing prices in the growth arenas. And some of these areas still show an over supply, with office vacancy rates along the western states running between 12 and 25%.

According to Cahners Building and Construction Market Forecast, new residential construction should reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $414 billion in the first quarter of '93. This reflects a 10.4% increase over '92 which grew only 6% over '91's tremendous fall of -9.5%. Single unit construction should increase about 4% with multi-unit construction predicted to grow almost 25%.

Other national growth markets appear to include the Hotel Industry which, coming off a <19.8%> setback in '92, should grow to 5.4 billion in '93; and the Public Highways, which are expected to grow by 11.8% before Clinton raises taxes and rebuilds the infrastructure.

The International market seems to be an increasing arena for American landscape architects, although the issue with IFLA has produced an apathetic response (see page 20 "October").

The Pacific Rim Information Network, which provides a listing of developments and the principals involved in the hotel and resort arena, shows a considerable opportunity in Japan, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore for major resort development. US Landscape Architects are ranked as desirable for the projects, and will continue in that role as long as they can maintain a superior knowledge bank.

US Involvement is also being lobbied by the The Golf Course Superintendents Association. The GCSAA is making a real push to include the pacific rim in its membership. GCSAA recently visited Singapore, Taiwan, China, and Australia and has announced that Hale Irwin will be the Keynote speaker at the International Golf Course Show

In all 1993 holds a lot of promise for the aggressive LA and LA firm, but don't expect things to happen overnight. Residential, commercial and public works are all heading up, so be prepared and be efficient and we'll see you all again this time next year! LASN