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Everything Considered, the Recovery Tunnel Is Coming Into View04-15-09 | News

Everything Considered, the Recovery Tunnel Is Coming Into View

This economic recovery pattern cannot materialize without near-term stabilization of the housing sector. NAHB is counting on support from recent policy initiatives to help housing turn that corner. - Courtesy of www.chfinternational.org

There have been some glimmers of light in the darkening economic picture, including retail sales for January and February and sales of both new and existing homes in February. It?EUR??,,????'???s clear that ongoing market adjustments in key sectors are essential to eventual economic recovery and expansion, according to National Association of Home Builders.

The policy blitz coming from President Obama, Congress, Federal Reserve and foreign policymakers certainly are helping to move the train down the track toward the recovery tunnel. The light at the other end should be in view soon, stated NAHB.

NAHB?EUR??,,????'???s baseline (most probable) forecast shows resumption of real GDP growth during the second half of this year. This tops-out of the unemployment rate in the first quarter of 2010. Payroll employment growth should resume by the second quarter of next year and inflation rates could approach zero in 2010 but not slip into the deflationary zone.

NAHB?EUR??,,????'???s forecast shows a bottom for home sales in the first quarter of this year, a bottom for total and single-family housing starts in the second quarter and a bottom for the residential fixed investment component of GDP in the final quarter of 2009.

National average house prices should stabilize within a few quarters. The majority of the decline may now be behind us. ?EUR??,,????'??? Courtesy of NAHB